比特币普尔倍数(Puell Multiple)是一个用来判断市场是否过热、可能到顶的指标,核心是看矿工收入情况。以下是简单讲解:
1. 什么是 Puell Multiple?
- 它衡量矿工每天赚的钱(美元)比过去一年的平均收入高多少倍。
- 公式:每日矿工收入 ÷ 365天平均收入。
- 高倍数(>3-4)说明矿工赚得多,可能是牛市顶部的信号;低倍数(<0.5)说明矿工收入低,可能接近底部。
2. 怎么用它看逃顶?
- 监控:用 Glassnode 或 LookIntoBitcoin 查看 Puell Multiple 图表。
- 信号:
- >4:市场过热,矿工可能抛售比特币,价格有下跌风险。
- >7-10:极端高位,历史顶部(如2017年、2021年)常出现在这区间。
- 逃顶方法:
- 看到高倍数(如>4)且价格暴涨,考虑减仓。
- 结合其他信号(如RSI高企、市场狂热)确认。
- 例子:2021年比特币6.9万美元时,Puell Multiple到5-6后回落,市场随后大跌。
3. 注意
- 不要单独依赖,配合价格、成交量等看。
- 市场变化快,查实时数据。
- 高风险市场,谨慎投资。

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