A memo for predicting market targets for myself, hoping to see a 5x-10x ticker here. 👉 First, let's clarify one point: The two major issues that the prediction market urgently needs to solve are liquidity and oracle. - Liquidity: Due to the numerous markets, there are countless topics waiting to be bet on, and the liquidity of different topics varies. Some long-tail topics have very little liquidity because only a few people are betting on them, leading to a very poor user experience. - Oracle: The final value settlement of the prediction market completely relies on an external fact that it cannot obtain itself, and the oracle is responsible for providing the messenger of the facts. If the oracle is unreliable, dishonest, or manipulated, the entire prediction market will collapse. 👉 Next, let's categorize the prediction market targets, where betting on each category is relatively reasonable: 1️⃣ Platform type: The leading polymarket goes without saying, along with kalshi, Limitless, PMX, etc. 2️⃣ Tool type: Polyfacts (AI news research tool), OK (Tg bot), etc. 3️⃣ Oracle: UMA, Chainlink, $swtch, and APRO mentioned by CZ in the past few days. —————————— Platform Type —————————— $PMX (Market Cap 19M) CA: J27UYHX5oeaG1YbUGQc8BmJySXDjNWChdGB2Pi2TMDAq Originally Pcule, it was a Telegram prediction market trading bot. After the project transformation, it upgraded from a tool to a platform, becoming a permissioned prediction market launchpad where anyone can create a market, similar to issuing tokens on a joint curve. It has a very close partnership with Metaora, being a favored child supported by Metaora, leveraging Metaora's influence to rally the LP Army to provide liquidity. $Cap (Market Cap 1.7M) CA: 7E2iF4WFs5biCtkAVFCBPEdnpg7t2D19VzxjxEPvpump A launchpad for long-tail prediction markets on Sol. Users can create a prediction market by posting @ their bot. The V2 version of the product will be released in 4 days, so keep an eye on it. The team is particularly good at creating buzz; previously, they spread news about raising 6.9M from FTX during the holidays and are planning a live stream with the CEO of Polymarket 🤡. These are all tactics used by the project team to generate excitement. ——————————— Tool Type ——————————— $Polyfacts (Market Cap 5.9M) CA: FfixAeHevSKBZWoXPTbLk4U4X9piqvzGKvQaFo3cpump It is the first project listed on polymarket, although it uses a very impressive term "truth market," it is currently a research tool assisted by AI for decision-making. However, its white paper clearly states that this is only the first phase of the product (aiming to become the leading prediction market media like coindesk in the crypto media space). The second phase of the product is FactLayer, which aims to fundamentally solve the long-standing liquidity issues faced by prediction markets. FactLayer will create a new asset called TBTs (Truth-Backed Tokens). Users purchase these TBTs before the results of the predicted events are revealed, and a portion of the purchase funds will automatically flow into an insurance pool. This process serves both as a token presale and as insurance against black swan events to reduce losses for LP providers. The story of this product is quite promising, and the key point of contention will be how well it performs after implementation. $OK (Market Cap 2.5M) CA: 8biqsLDiRPaPM11S42zKtNaC3WWKF64PNoPG9htzy99n A trading Tg bot for the prediction market. A fun fact is that the bot used for convenient betting in the official PolyMarket TG group chat is okbet. From Dune, you can see the market share of different tg bots, and ok's data is currently showing a stable upward trend. However, one point I don't like about ok is that the team doesn't create buzz (like Flipr, they are too honest and don't generate excitement). Marketing is also an important factor in evaluating a project; teams that know how to attract attention at the right timing can naturally draw in funding. >>>> Next, I will continue to pay attention to the prediction market and also want to try playing on polymarket, as the leader has a wealth effect, and the story can continue to be told. I look forward to exchanging ideas with teachers who understand this area better!