When you begin to realize there is no "dollar debasement" and you've been sold an easily debunked narrative. The question is whether these risky markets - what crypto has become, competition for stocks not Euro$ - are starting to realize the actual fundamentals in money & macro.

Friday's repo rate spike was the most since March 2020 and is starting to display the same kind of volatility and tightness as in 2019 leading up to repo mess. Fed will ignore it as long as it can until it just gets worse then will panic into a not-QE QE. Especially since Fed repo isn't working (shocking!!) to keep repo rates behaved. The whole point of the standing repo facility is to provide repo participants the ability to borrow reserves whenever conditions get tight. That way the market doesn't see repo rates look like they did six years ago. They're looking like they did six years ago even though there is a standing repo facility from the Fed. So what's the deal here? Officials are going to downplay it as technical matters when the cockroaches would like a word. The problem isn't the Fed, the number of reserves, or the ways in which market participants can get them, it's why money (and collateral) isn't circulating the way it had a few months ago. Did something change over the past few months? Job losses? Private credit bankruptcies? Collateral questions across the entire shadow banking space? Nah, it's just QT. 😆